Tennis · US Open Women · 09/09, 17:00
Prediction: Mirra Andreeva vs Coco Gauff
Team pages: Mirra Andreeva · Coco Gauff
Prediction summary
Winner
Mirra Andreeva
Coco Gauff
Estimated games
21Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mirra Andreeva
8-2 (W-L)
Coco Gauff
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mirra Andreeva
0–5
Coco Gauff
(5 last)
- 12 May1-2 12-16L
- 14 May0-2 10-13L
- 30 Apr0-2 6-13L
- 30 Aug0-2 5-12L
- 03 Jun1-2 9-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mirra Andreeva 1573 · Coco Gauff 1652
| Mirra Andreeva | Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 40% | 60% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Coco Gauff (rating 1573 vs 1652).
- Coco Gauff is in better form: 100% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Mirra Andreeva 0–5 Coco Gauff (5).
Statistics
| Mirra Andreeva | Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 100% |
| Win % · Hard | 78% (9) | 100% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 2-0.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-8.3 | 12.4-6.7 |
| Aces | 3.1 | 3.7 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 73.6% | 72.7% |
| Break % | 58.2% | 50.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21 · Bet365 line 21.5 · -0.5
Over 21.5: 47% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 53% · 1.83
H2H · Mirra Andreeva 0 – 5 Coco Gauff (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mirra Andreeva 0–5 Coco Gauff
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/26 WTA Rome | 1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 14/05/25 WTA Rome | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/04/25 WTA Madrid | 0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 30/08/23 US Open Women | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/06/23 French Open Women | 1-2 | 9-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mirra Andreeva
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Anastasia Potapova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 05/09 | Nikola Bartunkova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/09 | Eva Lys US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/09 | Janice Tjen US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 8-16 | L |
| 18/08 | Janice Tjen WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 16/08 | Oleksandra Oliynykova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 07/08 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Karolina Pliskova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/07 | Barbora Krejcikova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
Coco Gauff
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Iva Jovic US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/09 | Cristina Bucsa US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Paula Badosa US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/09 | Zeynep Sonmez US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Jessica Pegula WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/08 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/08 | Ann Li WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 17/08 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mirra Andreeva vs Coco Gauff?
Our model gives 61% to Coco Gauff, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.