Tennis · US Open Women · 08/09, 17:00
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova
Team pages: Aryna Sabalenka · Linda Noskova
Prediction summary
Winner
Aryna Sabalenka
Linda Noskova
Estimated games
21Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Aryna Sabalenka
8-2 (W-L)
Linda Noskova
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Aryna Sabalenka
2–0
Linda Noskova
(2 last)
- 14 Mar2-0 12-7W
- 08 Jan2-0 13-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aryna Sabalenka 1604 · Linda Noskova 1563
| Aryna Sabalenka | Linda Noskova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 70% | 30% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aryna Sabalenka (rating 1604 vs 1563).
- Head-to-head: Aryna Sabalenka 2–0 Linda Noskova (2).
- Note: Linda Noskova makes many double faults (6.4/match).
Statistics
| Aryna Sabalenka | Linda Noskova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.4 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-7.7 | 12.7-9.8 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 6.9 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 6.4 |
| 1st serve % | 70.4% | 71.6% |
| Break % | 57.4% | 39% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21 · Bet365 line 21.5 · -0.5
Over 21.5: 46% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 54% · 1.83
H2H · Aryna Sabalenka 2 – 0 Linda Noskova (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aryna Sabalenka 2–0 Linda Noskova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 WTA Indian Wells | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/01/23 WTA Adelaide | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aryna Sabalenka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Taylor Townsend US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Kamilla Rakhimova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/09 | Polina Iatcenko US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 31/08 | Maria Camila Osorio US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Xinyu Wang WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/08 | Talia Gibson WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/08 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 07/08 | Shuai Zhang WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Linda Noskova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Marta Kostyuk US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 04/09 | Ann Li US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 03/09 | Lanlana Tararudee US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/08 | Katie Volynets US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 19/08 | Amanda Anisimova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Clara Tauson WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/08 | Katie Boulter WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/08 | Caty McNally WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 11/07 | Karolina Muchova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 09/07 | Marta Kostyuk Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova?
Our model gives 64% to Aryna Sabalenka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.