Tennis · US Open Women · 07/09, 17:00
Prediction: Naomi Osaka vs Elena Rybakina
Team pages: Naomi Osaka · Elena Rybakina
Prediction summary
Winner
Naomi Osaka
Elena Rybakina
Estimated games
22.4Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Naomi Osaka
7-3 (W-L)
Elena Rybakina
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Naomi Osaka
0–1
Elena Rybakina
(1 last)
- 12 Aug1-2 16-17L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Naomi Osaka 1575 · Elena Rybakina 1622
| Naomi Osaka | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elena Rybakina (rating 1575 vs 1622).
- Naomi Osaka dominates on serve: 8.1 aces and 48.6% break avg.
- Elena Rybakina dominates on serve: 7.5 aces and 43.4% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Naomi Osaka 0–1 Elena Rybakina (1).
Statistics
| Naomi Osaka | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 78% (9) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-10.8 | 12.9-9.8 |
| Aces | 8.1 | 7.5 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 73.7% | 75.6% |
| Break % | 48.6% | 43.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4 · Bet365 line 23.5 · -1.1
Over 23.5: 42% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 58% · 1.80
H2H · Naomi Osaka 0 – 1 Elena Rybakina (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Naomi Osaka 0–1 Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/26 WTA Toronto | 1-2 | 16-17 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Naomi Osaka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Elise Mertens US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 03/09 | Katerina Siniakova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 01/09 | Anastasia Zakharova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 12/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 10/08 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/08 | Elise Mertens WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/08 | Panna Udvardy WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/08 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 07/07 | Karolina Muchova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Yulia Starodubtsewa US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/09 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/09 | Thea Frodin US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 17/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Taylor Townsend WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 12/08 | Naomi Osaka WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 09/08 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Naomi Osaka vs Elena Rybakina?
Our model gives 54% to Elena Rybakina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.