Tennis · US Open Women · 07/09, 17:00
Prediction: Iga Swiatek vs Qinwen Zheng
Team pages: Iga Swiatek · Qinwen Zheng
Prediction summary
Winner
Iga Swiatek
Qinwen Zheng
Estimated games
21.6Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Iga Swiatek
8-2 (W-L)
Qinwen Zheng
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Iga Swiatek
7–1
Qinwen Zheng
(8 last)
- 13 Mar2-0 12-6W
- 01 Aug0-2 7-13L
- 22 Feb2-0 12-5W
- 03 Jan2-0 12-5W
- 17 Aug2-1 15-8W
- 20 Apr2-0 12-5W
- 13 Oct2-1 16-11W
- 30 May2-1 18-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Iga Swiatek 1630 · Qinwen Zheng 1565
| Iga Swiatek | Qinwen Zheng | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 74% | 26% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Iga Swiatek (rating 1630 vs 1565).
- Qinwen Zheng dominates on serve: 7.9 aces and 44.8% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Iga Swiatek 7–1 Qinwen Zheng (8).
- Note: Qinwen Zheng makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Iga Swiatek | Qinwen Zheng | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.4 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-7.6 | 12.3-10.4 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 7.9 |
| Double faults | 3 | 5.2 |
| 1st serve % | 71.3% | 75.6% |
| Break % | 58.6% | 44.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +2.1
Over 19.5: 64% · 1.80
Under 19.5: 36% · 1.90
H2H · Iga Swiatek 7 – 1 Qinwen Zheng (8)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Iga Swiatek 7–1 Qinwen Zheng
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/25 WTA Indian Wells | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/08/24 Olympics 2024 - Women | 0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 22/02/24 WTA Dubai | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/01/24 United Cup Women | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/08/23 WTA Cincinnati | 2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 20/04/23 WTA Stuttgart | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/10/22 WTA San Diego | 2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 30/05/22 French Open Women | 2-1 | 18-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Iga Swiatek
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Marie Bouzkova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 03/09 | Nadia Podoroska US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/09 | Xiyu Wang US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Jessica Pegula WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 19/08 | Diane Parry WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/08 | Maria Sakkari WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 16/08 | Emiliana Arango WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/08 | Elina Svitolina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 11/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Qinwen Zheng
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Madison Keys US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-17 | W |
| 03/09 | Yulia Putintseva US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 31/08 | Kristina Liutova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 28/08 | Elena Pridankina US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Clara Burel US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 24/08 | Xiaodi You US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/08 | Lanlana Tararudee WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 17/07 | Barbora Krejcikova WTA Athens · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Elena Micic WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Iga Swiatek vs Qinwen Zheng?
Our model gives 68% to Iga Swiatek, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.