Tennis · US Open Women · 07/09, 17:00
Prediction: Mirra Andreeva vs Anastasia Potapova
Team pages: Mirra Andreeva · Anastasia Potapova
Prediction summary
Winner
Mirra Andreeva
Anastasia Potapova
Estimated games
20.3Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mirra Andreeva
9-1 (W-L)
Anastasia Potapova
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mirra Andreeva
3–1
Anastasia Potapova
(4 last)
- 12 Apr2-1 13-13W
- 28 Aug2-0 12-4W
- 09 Jul2-0 13-7W
- 04 Oct1-2 13-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mirra Andreeva 1570 · Anastasia Potapova 1529
| Mirra Andreeva | Anastasia Potapova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mirra Andreeva (rating 1570 vs 1529).
- Head-to-head: Mirra Andreeva 3–1 Anastasia Potapova (4).
- Note: Anastasia Potapova makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Mirra Andreeva | Anastasia Potapova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-7.8 | 9.7-9.9 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 5.4 |
| 1st serve % | 73.5% | 65.8% |
| Break % | 56.2% | 49.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +0.8
Over 19.5: 55% · 1.72
Under 19.5: 45% · 2.00
H2H · Mirra Andreeva 3 – 1 Anastasia Potapova (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mirra Andreeva 3–1 Anastasia Potapova
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 WTA Linz | 2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 28/08/25 US Open Women | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/07/23 Wimbledon Women | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 04/10/22 WTA Monastir | 1-2 | 13-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mirra Andreeva
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Nikola Bartunkova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/09 | Eva Lys US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/09 | Janice Tjen US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 8-16 | L |
| 18/08 | Janice Tjen WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 16/08 | Oleksandra Oliynykova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 07/08 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Karolina Pliskova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/07 | Barbora Krejcikova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 29/06 | Magda Linette Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Anastasia Potapova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Amanda Anisimova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 03/09 | Leolia Jeanjean US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 01/09 | Darja Semenistaja US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/08 | Sloane Stephens WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Elina Svitolina WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/07 | Diana Shnaider WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Venus Williams WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/06 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Suzan Lamens WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mirra Andreeva vs Anastasia Potapova?
Our model gives 71% to Mirra Andreeva, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.