Prediction: Ben Shelton vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Team pages: Ben Shelton · Stefanos Tsitsipas
Prediction summary
Winner
Ben Shelton
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Estimated games
25Bet365 line 37.5
Recent form · 10 last
Ben Shelton
8-2 (W-L)
Stefanos Tsitsipas
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ben Shelton
0–1
Stefanos Tsitsipas
(1 last)
- 16 Aug0-2 12-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ben Shelton 1608 · Stefanos Tsitsipas 1563
| Ben Shelton | Stefanos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 70% | 30% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ben Shelton (rating 1608 vs 1563).
- Ben Shelton dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 48.1% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Ben Shelton 0–1 Stefanos Tsitsipas (1).
- Note: Stefanos Tsitsipas makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Ben Shelton | Stefanos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.1-0.5 | 1.7-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.3-10.8 | 14.8-12.7 |
| Aces | 6.4 | 9.4 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 79.1% | 75.6% |
| Break % | 48.1% | 36.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25 · Bet365 line 37.5 · -12.5
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Ben Shelton 0 – 1 Stefanos Tsitsipas (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ben Shelton 0–1 Stefanos Tsitsipas
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/23 ATP Cincinnati | 0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ben Shelton
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Denis Shapovalov US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 25-20 | W |
| 02/09 | Hubert Hurkacz US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 25-21 | W |
| 01/09 | Tallon Griekspoor US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 20-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/08 | Jakub Mensik ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/08 | Joao Fonseca ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/08 | Zizou Bergs ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/08 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Stefanos Tsitsipas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Jiri Lehecka US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-14 | W |
| 02/09 | Lloyd Harris US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 25-20 | W |
| 31/08 | Arthur Fils US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-17 | W |
| 27/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/08 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Valentin Royer ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 05/08 | Joao Fonseca ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/08 | Martin Damm ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/08 | Keegan Rice ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ben Shelton vs Stefanos Tsitsipas?
Our model gives 64% to Ben Shelton, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.