Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe
Team pages: Daniil Medvedev · Frances Tiafoe
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniil Medvedev
Frances Tiafoe
Estimated games
25Bet365 line 39.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniil Medvedev
6-4 (W-L)
Frances Tiafoe
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniil Medvedev
6–1
Frances Tiafoe
(7 last)
- 07 Jan2-0 12-5W
- 21 Sept1-2 15-19L
- 18 Mar2-0 14-11W
- 30 Mar2-0 12-7W
- 08 Sept3-0 18-5W
- 21 Jan3-1 22-15W
- 02 Aug2-0 13-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniil Medvedev 1547 · Frances Tiafoe 1611
| Daniil Medvedev | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 62% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Frances Tiafoe (rating 1547 vs 1611).
- Daniil Medvedev dominates on serve: 10.7 aces and 49.6% break avg.
- Frances Tiafoe dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 51.8% break avg.
- Frances Tiafoe is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Daniil Medvedev 6–1 Frances Tiafoe (7).
- Note: Daniil Medvedev makes many double faults (6.2/match).
Statistics
| Daniil Medvedev | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1 | 2.2-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.6-12.9 | 15.6-11.8 |
| Aces | 10.7 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 6.2 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 77.1% | 77.9% |
| Break % | 49.6% | 51.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25 · Bet365 line 39.5 · -14.5
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Daniil Medvedev 6 – 1 Frances Tiafoe (7)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniil Medvedev 6–1 Frances Tiafoe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/01/26 ATP Brisbane | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/09/24 Laver Cup | 1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 18/03/23 ATP Indian Wells | 2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 30/03/21 ATP Miami | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/09/20 US Open | 3-0 | 18-5 | W |
| 21/01/20 Australian Open | 3-1 | 22-15 | W |
| 02/08/19 ATP Washington | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniil Medvedev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Arthur Rinderknech US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-12 | W |
| 02/09 | Sebastian Gorzny US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
| 30/08 | Hugo Gaston US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Martin Damm ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 16/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 17-21 | L |
| 01/07 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Marin Cilic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
Frances Tiafoe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Valentin Vacherot US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 03/09 | Rei Sakamoto US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Martin Damm US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-23 | W |
| 23/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 20/08 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Learner Tien ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe?
Our model gives 52% to Daniil Medvedev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.