Prediction: Alex Michelsen vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Team pages: Alex Michelsen · Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Michelsen
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Estimated games
23.3Bet365 line 38.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Michelsen
7-3 (W-L)
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Michelsen 1576 · Tomas Martin Etcheverry 1489
| Alex Michelsen | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 74% | 26% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex Michelsen (rating 1576 vs 1489).
- Alex Michelsen is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Alex Michelsen makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Alex Michelsen | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.7 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.9-10.8 | 12.1-12 |
| Aces | 5.2 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 75.8% | 73.7% |
| Break % | 45.7% | 42.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3 · Bet365 line 38.5 · -15.2
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Michelsen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Daniel Merida Aguilar US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 02/09 | Brandon Nakashima US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 31/08 | Federico Cina US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Jesper De Jong ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 05/08 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 31/07 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 30/07 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Mariano Navone US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 30/08 | Vit Kopriva US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 15/08 | Terence Atmane ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/07 | Alexander Bublik ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Ignacio Buse ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/07 | Jurij Rodionov ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/07 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 30/06 | Lorenzo Sonego Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 21-25 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Michelsen vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry?
Our model gives 69% to Alex Michelsen, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.