Tennis · US Open Women · 06/09, 17:00
Prediction: Jessica Pegula vs Sorana Cirstea
Team pages: Jessica Pegula · Sorana Cirstea
Prediction summary
Winner
Jessica Pegula
Sorana Cirstea
Estimated games
21.7Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jessica Pegula
7-3 (W-L)
Sorana Cirstea
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jessica Pegula
2–0
Sorana Cirstea
(2 last)
- 19 Aug2-1 17-13W
- 30 Apr2-0 13-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jessica Pegula 1592 · Sorana Cirstea 1544
| Jessica Pegula | Sorana Cirstea | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 70% | 30% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jessica Pegula (rating 1592 vs 1544).
- Head-to-head: Jessica Pegula 2–0 Sorana Cirstea (2).
Statistics
| Jessica Pegula | Sorana Cirstea | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-10.2 | 11.7-9.5 |
| Aces | 3.5 | 4.3 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 70.1% | 66.6% |
| Break % | 53.4% | 43.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7 · Bet365 line 21.5
Over 21.5: 51% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 49% · 1.90
H2H · Jessica Pegula 2 – 0 Sorana Cirstea (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jessica Pegula 2–0 Sorana Cirstea
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/26 WTA Cincinnati | 2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 30/04/21 WTA Madrid | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jessica Pegula
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Leylah Annie Fernandez US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 02/09 | Sofia Kenin US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/08 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 20/08 | Amanda Anisimova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 19/08 | Sorana Cirstea WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 18/08 | Emma Navarro WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/08 | Simona Waltert WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Sorana Cirstea
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Jasmine Paolini US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Diane Parry US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 31/08 | Julia Grabher US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/08 | Jessica Pegula WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 15/08 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Maya Joint WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 04/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 02/07 | Kimberly Birrell Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Sara Bejlek Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/06 | Emma Raducanu WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jessica Pegula vs Sorana Cirstea?
Our model gives 64% to Jessica Pegula, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.