Tennis · US Open Women · 06/09, 17:00
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Taylor Townsend
Team pages: Aryna Sabalenka · Taylor Townsend
Prediction summary
Winner
Aryna Sabalenka
Taylor Townsend
Estimated games
21.7Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Aryna Sabalenka
7-3 (W-L)
Taylor Townsend
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aryna Sabalenka 1574 · Taylor Townsend 1556
| Aryna Sabalenka | Taylor Townsend | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Aryna Sabalenka | Taylor Townsend | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 78% (9) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.6 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-8.3 | 12.9-11.1 |
| Aces | 5.6 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 70.9% | 73.3% |
| Break % | 52.4% | 41.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.2
Over 20.5: 58% · 1.90
Under 20.5: 42% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aryna Sabalenka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Kamilla Rakhimova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/09 | Polina Iatcenko US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 31/08 | Maria Camila Osorio US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Xinyu Wang WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/08 | Talia Gibson WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/08 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 07/08 | Shuai Zhang WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/07 | Naomi Osaka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Taylor Townsend
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Diana Shnaider US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 02/09 | Taylah Preston US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 31/08 | Maja Chwalinska US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Maria Camila Osorio WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 08/08 | Belinda Bencic WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 05/08 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 04/08 | Tereza Valentova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 30/06 | Iga Swiatek Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 21/06 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aryna Sabalenka vs Taylor Townsend?
Our model gives 68% to Aryna Sabalenka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.