Tennis · US Open Women · 05/09, 17:00
Prediction: Yulia Starodubtsewa vs Elena Rybakina
Team pages: Yulia Starodubtsewa · Elena Rybakina
Prediction summary
Winner
Yulia Starodubtsewa
Elena Rybakina
Estimated games
22.6Bet365 line 18.5
Recent form · 10 last
Yulia Starodubtsewa
5-5 (W-L)
Elena Rybakina
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Yulia Starodubtsewa
1–0
Elena Rybakina
(1 last)
- 27 May2-1 16-13W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yulia Starodubtsewa 1507 · Elena Rybakina 1620
| Yulia Starodubtsewa | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 12% | 88% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elena Rybakina (rating 1507 vs 1620).
- Elena Rybakina dominates on serve: 6.5 aces and 48.6% break avg.
- Elena Rybakina is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Yulia Starodubtsewa 1–0 Elena Rybakina (1).
Statistics
| Yulia Starodubtsewa | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-12.2 | 12.9-9.6 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 6.5 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 59.3% | 74.5% |
| Break % | 38% | 48.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6 · Bet365 line 18.5 · +4.1
Over 18.5: 76% · 1.72
Under 18.5: 24% · 2.00
H2H · Yulia Starodubtsewa 1 – 0 Elena Rybakina (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Yulia Starodubtsewa 1–0 Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/26 French Open Women | 2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yulia Starodubtsewa
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Maria Sakkari US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Ella Seidel US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/08 | Elise Mertens WTA Monterrey · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Janice Tjen WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Lilli Tagger WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Daria Snigur WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Maya Joint WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 29/07 | Sloane Stephens WTA Memphis · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Anna Blinkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 23/06 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/09 | Thea Frodin US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 17/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Taylor Townsend WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 12/08 | Naomi Osaka WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 09/08 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 07/08 | Ann Li WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yulia Starodubtsewa vs Elena Rybakina?
Our model gives 78% to Elena Rybakina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.