Tennis · US Open Women · 05/09, 17:00
Prediction: Cristina Bucsa vs Coco Gauff
Team pages: Cristina Bucsa · Coco Gauff
Prediction summary
Winner
Cristina Bucsa
Coco Gauff
Estimated games
22.6Bet365 line 17.5
Recent form · 10 last
Cristina Bucsa
6-4 (W-L)
Coco Gauff
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Cristina Bucsa
0–1
Coco Gauff
(1 last)
- 11 Mar0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cristina Bucsa 1497 · Coco Gauff 1633
| Cristina Bucsa | Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 69% |
| Market | 7% | 93% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Coco Gauff (rating 1497 vs 1633).
- Coco Gauff is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Cristina Bucsa 0–1 Coco Gauff (1).
- Note: Cristina Bucsa makes many double faults (4.8/match).
- Note: Coco Gauff makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Cristina Bucsa | Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.5 | 1.9-0.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-13.6 | 12.3-7.6 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 4 |
| Double faults | 4.8 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 61% | 70.8% |
| Break % | 44.1% | 50% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6 · Bet365 line 17.5 · +5.1
Over 17.5: 81% · 2.00
Under 17.5: 19% · 1.72
H2H · Cristina Bucsa 0 – 1 Coco Gauff (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cristina Bucsa 0–1 Coco Gauff
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/23 WTA Indian Wells | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cristina Bucsa
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Himeno Sakatsume US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 31/08 | Sara Bejlek US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 26/08 | Darja Vidmanova WTA Monterrey · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/08 | Anna Bondar WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/08 | Maja Chwalinska WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Panna Udvardy WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 02/08 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Polina Kudermetova WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 25/05 | Susan Bandecchi French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 19/05 | Shuai Zhang WTA Strasbourg · Clay |
1-2 | 17-16 | L |
Coco Gauff
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Paula Badosa US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/09 | Zeynep Sonmez US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Jessica Pegula WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/08 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/08 | Ann Li WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 17/08 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 13/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 09/08 | Alina Korneeva WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cristina Bucsa vs Coco Gauff?
Our model gives 82% to Coco Gauff, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.