Prediction: Michael Zheng vs Arthur Gea
Team pages: Michael Zheng · Arthur Gea
Prediction summary
Winner
Michael Zheng
Arthur Gea
Estimated games
24.7Bet365 line 39.5
Recent form · 10 last
Michael Zheng
5-5 (W-L)
Arthur Gea
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Michael Zheng
0–2
Arthur Gea
(2 last)
- 30 Jul1-2 10-12L
- 09 Jan1-2 11-16L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Michael Zheng 1555 · Arthur Gea 1617
| Michael Zheng | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 57% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arthur Gea (rating 1555 vs 1617).
- Michael Zheng dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 51.4% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Michael Zheng 0–2 Arthur Gea (2).
- Note: Arthur Gea makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Michael Zheng | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1 | 2-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.1-11.6 | 15.4-11.7 |
| Aces | 6.4 | 4.6 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 4.7 |
| 1st serve % | 76.3% | 73.1% |
| Break % | 51.4% | 53.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.7 · Bet365 line 39.5 · -14.8
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Michael Zheng 0 – 2 Arthur Gea (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Michael Zheng 0–2 Arthur Gea
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/26 ATP Los Cabos | 1-2 | 10-12 | L |
| 09/01/26 Challenger Noumea | 1-2 | 11-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Michael Zheng
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Bu Yunchaokete US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 20-14 | W |
| 02/09 | Fabian Marozsan US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 18/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Ugo Humbert ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 13/08 | Trevor Svajda ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 12/08 | Moez Echargui ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 04/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 01/08 | Kei Nishikori ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/07 | Arthur Gea ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 10-12 | L |
Arthur Gea
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Zachary Svajda US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 23-19 | W |
| 28/08 | Nishesh Basavareddy US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Clement Chidekh US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 25/08 | Sumit Nagal US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/08 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/08 | Coleman Wong ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/07 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 30/07 | Michael Zheng ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 12-10 | W |
| 29/07 | Soonwoo Kwon ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Michael Zheng vs Arthur Gea?
Our model gives 50% to Michael Zheng, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.