Tennis · US Open Women · 05/09, 17:00
Prediction: Madison Keys vs Qinwen Zheng
Team pages: Madison Keys · Qinwen Zheng
Prediction summary
Winner
Madison Keys
Qinwen Zheng
Estimated games
22.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Madison Keys
6-4 (W-L)
Qinwen Zheng
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Madison Keys
1–1
Qinwen Zheng
(2 last)
- 22 Mar1-2 12-16L
- 02 Aug2-0 13-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Madison Keys 1546 · Qinwen Zheng 1572
| Madison Keys | Qinwen Zheng | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 64% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Qinwen Zheng dominates on serve: 8.4 aces and 45.5% break avg.
- Note: Madison Keys makes many double faults (5.2/match).
- Note: Qinwen Zheng makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Madison Keys | Qinwen Zheng | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-11.1 | 12.1-9.3 |
| Aces | 5.8 | 8.4 |
| Double faults | 5.2 | 5 |
| 1st serve % | 70.5% | 74.9% |
| Break % | 35% | 45.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 50% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 50% · 1.83
H2H · Madison Keys 1 – 1 Qinwen Zheng (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Madison Keys 1–1 Qinwen Zheng
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 WTA Miami | 1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 02/08/23 WTA Washington | 2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Madison Keys
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Anna Bondar US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 01/09 | Alina Korneeva US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 20/08 | Xiyu Wang WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/08 | Katerina Siniakova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/08 | Daria Snigur WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 06/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Antonia Ruzic WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/07 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 06/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Qinwen Zheng
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Yulia Putintseva US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 31/08 | Kristina Liutova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 28/08 | Elena Pridankina US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Clara Burel US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 24/08 | Xiaodi You US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/08 | Lanlana Tararudee WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 17/07 | Barbora Krejcikova WTA Athens · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Elena Micic WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/07 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Madison Keys vs Qinwen Zheng?
Our model gives 56% to Madison Keys, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.