Prediction: Luciano Darderi vs Dane Sweeny
Team pages: Luciano Darderi · Dane Sweeny
Prediction summary
Winner
Luciano Darderi
Dane Sweeny
Estimated games
25.4Bet365 line 32.5
Recent form · 10 last
Luciano Darderi
3-7 (W-L)
Dane Sweeny
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Luciano Darderi
1–0
Dane Sweeny
(1 last)
- 11 Jan2-1 14-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luciano Darderi 1526 · Dane Sweeny 1464
| Luciano Darderi | Dane Sweeny | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luciano Darderi (rating 1526 vs 1464).
- Head-to-head: Luciano Darderi 1–0 Dane Sweeny (1).
- Note: Dane Sweeny makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Luciano Darderi | Dane Sweeny | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 29% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.4 | 1.3-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.9-13.8 | 13.5-14.1 |
| Aces | 5.8 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 65.1% | 66.9% |
| Break % | 26.2% | 40.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.4 · Bet365 line 32.5 · -7.1
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Luciano Darderi 1 – 0 Dane Sweeny (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Luciano Darderi 1–0 Dane Sweeny
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/23 Australian Open | 2-1 | 14-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luciano Darderi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Dalibor Svrcina US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-18 | W |
| 31/08 | Harry Wendelken US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-15 | W |
| 26/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 15/08 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/08 | Nuno Borges ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 06/08 | Juncheng Shang ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 25/07 | Alexander Blockx ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 19-19 | L |
| 24/07 | Jaime Faria ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Dane Sweeny
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Lorenzo Musetti US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-11 | W |
| 18/08 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 11/08 | Christopher O'Connell ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 01/08 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 29/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Duncan Chan Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/07 | Andres Martin Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Grigor Dimitrov Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 25/06 | Tomas Barrios Vera Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 23-24 | W |
| 22/06 | Franco Roncadelli Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luciano Darderi vs Dane Sweeny?
Our model gives 71% to Luciano Darderi, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.