Tennis · M15 Bologna · 04/09, 16:00
Prediction: Gabriele Maria Noce vs Manuel Mazza
Team pages: Gabriele Maria Noce · Manuel Mazza
Prediction summary
Winner
Gabriele Maria Noce
Manuel Mazza
Estimated games
23.2
Recent form · 10 last
Gabriele Maria Noce
6-4 (W-L)
Manuel Mazza
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Gabriele Maria Noce
1–0
Manuel Mazza
(1 last)
- 07 Feb2-1 14-16W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gabriele Maria Noce 1532 · Manuel Mazza 1482
| Gabriele Maria Noce | Manuel Mazza | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gabriele Maria Noce (rating 1532 vs 1482).
- Head-to-head: Gabriele Maria Noce 1–0 Manuel Mazza (1).
- Note: Gabriele Maria Noce makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Gabriele Maria Noce | Manuel Mazza | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (4) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-10.4 | 11.5-12.4 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 63.4% | 64% |
| Break % | 40.5% | 34.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
H2H · Gabriele Maria Noce 1 – 0 Manuel Mazza (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gabriele Maria Noce 1–0 Manuel Mazza
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 M15 Javea | 2-1 | 14-16 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gabriele Maria Noce
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Alessandro Battiston M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/09 | Mirko Lagasio M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/08 | Thilo Behrmann M15 Mistelbach |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/08 | David Wallechner M15 Mistelbach |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/08 | Nicolo Toffanin M15 Mistelbach |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/08 | Patrick Jozwicki M15 Mistelbach |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 09/08 | Lorenzo Carboni Challenger Todi · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 05/08 | Carl Emil Overbeck M25 Fano |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Nicola Rispoli M25 Fano |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 01/08 | Veljko Krstic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Manuel Mazza
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Jacopo Bilardo M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 01/09 | Giacomo Crisostomo M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/08 | Daniele Rapagnetta M25 Lesa |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Stefano D'Agostino M25 Lesa |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 27/07 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Niels Visker Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/06 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Marcello Serafini M25 Milano · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 08/06 | Carlos Sanchez Jover Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 01/06 | Nicolas Alvarez Varona Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gabriele Maria Noce vs Manuel Mazza?
Our model gives 59% to Manuel Mazza, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.