Tennis · US Open Women · 05/09, 17:00
Prediction: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens
Team pages: Naomi Osaka · Elise Mertens
Prediction summary
Winner
Naomi Osaka
Elise Mertens
Estimated games
21.6Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Naomi Osaka
7-3 (W-L)
Elise Mertens
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Naomi Osaka
6–3
Elise Mertens
(9 last)
- 08 Aug2-0 12-3W
- 23 Jun2-0 12-6W
- 09 Aug0-2 7-12L
- 11 Jun2-0 12-6W
- 11 Mar0-2 9-13L
- 29 Mar2-0 12-6W
- 28 Aug2-0 13-8W
- 21 Sept2-0 12-5W
Showing the 8 with a final score we have.
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Naomi Osaka 1578 · Elise Mertens 1545
| Naomi Osaka | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Naomi Osaka dominates on serve: 8 aces and 51.1% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Naomi Osaka 6–3 Elise Mertens (9).
- Note: Elise Mertens makes many double faults (5.1/match).
Statistics
| Naomi Osaka | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-10.2 | 11.5-10.8 |
| Aces | 8 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 5.1 |
| 1st serve % | 74.5% | 72% |
| Break % | 51.1% | 36.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6 · Bet365 line 21.5
Over 21.5: 51% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 49% · 1.83
H2H · Naomi Osaka 6 – 3 Elise Mertens (9)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Naomi Osaka 6–3 Elise Mertens
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 WTA Toronto | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 23/06/26 WTA Bad Homburg | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/08/24 WTA Toronto | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/06/24 WTA Hertogenbosch | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/03/24 WTA Indian Wells | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/03/21 WTA Miami | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/08/20 WTA New York | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 21/09/19 WTA Osaka | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Naomi Osaka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Katerina Siniakova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 01/09 | Anastasia Zakharova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 12/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 10/08 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/08 | Elise Mertens WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/08 | Panna Udvardy WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/08 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 07/07 | Karolina Muchova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/07 | Aryna Sabalenka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Elise Mertens
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Maria Timofeeva US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/09 | Kaitlin Quevedo US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/08 | Diane Parry WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 13-12 | L |
| 29/08 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 28/08 | Yulia Starodubtsewa WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/08 | Panna Udvardy WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Diane Parry WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 08/08 | Naomi Osaka WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Anna Bondar WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 08/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens?
Our model gives 65% to Naomi Osaka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.