Tennis · US Open Women · 05/09, 17:00
Prediction: Iga Swiatek vs Marie Bouzkova
Team pages: Iga Swiatek · Marie Bouzkova
Prediction summary
Winner
Iga Swiatek
Marie Bouzkova
Estimated games
20.4Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Iga Swiatek
7-3 (W-L)
Marie Bouzkova
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Iga Swiatek
3–0
Marie Bouzkova
(3 last)
- 22 Jan2-0 12-5W
- 07 Oct2-0 12-2W
- 31 May2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Iga Swiatek 1651 · Marie Bouzkova 1528
| Iga Swiatek | Marie Bouzkova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 33% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Iga Swiatek (rating 1651 vs 1528).
- Iga Swiatek is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Iga Swiatek 3–0 Marie Bouzkova (3).
Statistics
| Iga Swiatek | Marie Bouzkova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.5 | 1.3-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-7.3 | 11.7-9.8 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 70.6% | 68.8% |
| Break % | 58.3% | 42.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.4 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +0.9
Over 19.5: 56% · 1.80
Under 19.5: 44% · 1.90
H2H · Iga Swiatek 3 – 0 Marie Bouzkova (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Iga Swiatek 3–0 Marie Bouzkova
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/01/26 Australian Open Women | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/10/25 WTA Wuhan | 2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 31/05/24 French Open Women | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Iga Swiatek
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Nadia Podoroska US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/09 | Xiyu Wang US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Jessica Pegula WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 19/08 | Diane Parry WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/08 | Maria Sakkari WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 16/08 | Emiliana Arango WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/08 | Elina Svitolina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 11/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
Marie Bouzkova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Harriet Dart US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 31/08 | Elsa Jacquemot US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Iva Jovic WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/08 | Lucrezia Stefanini WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/08 | Taylor Townsend WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 24/07 | Tereza Valentova WTA Prague · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 22/07 | Carol Young Suh Lee WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/07 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 06/07 | Elise Mertens Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Iga Swiatek vs Marie Bouzkova?
Our model gives 76% to Iga Swiatek, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.