Tennis · M25 Urayasu · 04/09, 03:00
Prediction: Naoki Nakagawa vs Ryota Tanuma
Team pages: Naoki Nakagawa · Ryota Tanuma
Prediction summary
Winner
Naoki Nakagawa
Ryota Tanuma
Estimated games
19.7
Recent form · 10 last
Naoki Nakagawa
7-3 (W-L)
Ryota Tanuma
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Naoki Nakagawa
4–1
Ryota Tanuma
(5 last)
- 19 Jul2-0 13-6W
- 01 Jul0-2 6-12L
- 19 Oct2-0 12-8W
- 05 Oct2-0 12-6W
- 06 Nov2-0 12-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Naoki Nakagawa 1569 · Ryota Tanuma 1566
| Naoki Nakagawa | Ryota Tanuma | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Naoki Nakagawa dominates on serve: 6.8 aces and 54.3% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Naoki Nakagawa 4–1 Ryota Tanuma (5).
Statistics
| Naoki Nakagawa | Ryota Tanuma | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (5) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-9.6 | 11.5-7.4 |
| Aces | 6.8 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 82.4% | 72.3% |
| Break % | 54.3% | 52% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.7
H2H · Naoki Nakagawa 4 – 1 Ryota Tanuma (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Naoki Nakagawa 4–1 Ryota Tanuma
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/26 UTR Pro Kawaguchi | 2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 01/07/26 M15 Tokyo | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/10/25 UTR Pro Kawaguchi | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 05/10/25 UTR Pro Kawaguchi | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/11/22 Challenger Matsuyama | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Naoki Nakagawa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Naoya Honda M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/09 | Yua Taka M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/08 | Max Sheldon M25 East Lansing |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Cooper Woestendick M25 East Lansing |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 06/08 | Clement Chidekh M25 Southaven |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 19/07 | Ryota Tanuma UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 18/07 | Hiiro Sakamoto UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/07 | Soma Fukuhara UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/07 | Koki Matsuda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/07 | Shintaro Imai M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
Ryota Tanuma
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Hikaru Shiraishi M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/09 | Yuta Kawahashi M25 Urayasu |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 25/08 | Kai-I Wang M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 17/08 | Noritaka Koizumi M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Corban Crowther UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/08 | Takumi Katsuda UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/08 | Eita Suzuki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 06/08 | Ryosuke Inagawa UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/08 | Kanata Ozaki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/08 | Kai Milburn UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Naoki Nakagawa vs Ryota Tanuma?
Our model gives 65% to Naoki Nakagawa, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.