Tennis · M25 Urayasu · 02/09, 03:00
Prediction: Naoki Nakagawa vs Yua Taka
Team pages: Naoki Nakagawa · Yua Taka
Prediction summary
Winner
Naoki Nakagawa
Yua Taka
Estimated games
20.6
Recent form · 10 last
Naoki Nakagawa
6-4 (W-L)
Yua Taka
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Naoki Nakagawa 1576 · Yua Taka 1470
| Naoki Nakagawa | Yua Taka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Naoki Nakagawa (rating 1576 vs 1470).
- Naoki Nakagawa dominates on serve: 7.2 aces and 47.2% break avg.
- Naoki Nakagawa is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Naoki Nakagawa | Yua Taka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 86% (7) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 0.8-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-10.6 | 8.8-9.5 |
| Aces | 7.2 | 2 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 80.3% | 65.2% |
| Break % | 47.2% | 38.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Naoki Nakagawa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Max Sheldon M25 East Lansing |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Cooper Woestendick M25 East Lansing |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 06/08 | Clement Chidekh M25 Southaven |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 19/07 | Ryota Tanuma UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 18/07 | Hiiro Sakamoto UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/07 | Soma Fukuhara UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/07 | Koki Matsuda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/07 | Shintaro Imai M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 09/07 | Naoya Honda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Sanhui Shin M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Yua Taka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Chase Ferguson M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/08 | Yue Xia M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/08 | James Van Herzeele M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/07 | Asahi Harazaki M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Uisung Park M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/07 | Chen-Yu Lu M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Martin Borisiouk M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Dong Ju Kim M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Thantub Suksumrarn M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/06 | Hunter Heck M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Naoki Nakagawa vs Yua Taka?
Our model gives 75% to Naoki Nakagawa, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.