Tennis · M25 Urayasu · 03/09, 03:00
Prediction: Keisuke Saitoh vs Chase Ferguson
Team pages: Keisuke Saitoh · Chase Ferguson
Prediction summary
Winner
Keisuke Saitoh
Chase Ferguson
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Keisuke Saitoh
4-6 (W-L)
Chase Ferguson
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Keisuke Saitoh
0–1
Chase Ferguson
(1 last)
- 02 Apr0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Keisuke Saitoh 1471 · Chase Ferguson 1535
| Keisuke Saitoh | Chase Ferguson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chase Ferguson (rating 1471 vs 1535).
- Head-to-head: Keisuke Saitoh 0–1 Chase Ferguson (1).
Statistics
| Keisuke Saitoh | Chase Ferguson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (3) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.1 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.5-10.2 | 13-12.3 |
| Aces | 1.5 | 3 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 65.8% | 69.2% |
| Break % | 40.4% | 34.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
H2H · Keisuke Saitoh 0 – 1 Chase Ferguson (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Keisuke Saitoh 0–1 Chase Ferguson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/26 M15 Kashiwa | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Keisuke Saitoh
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Sena Okabe M25 Urayasu |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/08 | Matthew Dellavedova M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Tsung-Hao Huang M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/08 | Sam Ryan Ziegann M15 Bali |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 31/07 | Sanhui Shin M15 Bali |
2-1 | 19-12 | W |
| 30/07 | Rafalentino Ali Da Costa M15 Bali |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 28/07 | Daniel Bagnolini M15 Bali |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/07 | Alexander Chang M15 Bali |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/07 | Ren Nakamura M15 Bali |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/06 | Hunter Heck M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-9 | L |
Chase Ferguson
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Yusuke Takahashi M25 Urayasu |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 29/08 | Rigele Te M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Fumin Jiang M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 27/08 | Hanyi Liu M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/08 | Yua Taka M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/08 | Yunseong Chung M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 24/07 | Duje Markovina M15 Brisbane |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 23/07 | Derek Pham M15 Brisbane |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 17/07 | Jake Delaney M25 Brisbane |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 16/07 | Mustafa Ege Sik M25 Brisbane |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Keisuke Saitoh vs Chase Ferguson?
Our model gives 50% to Keisuke Saitoh, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.