Prediction: Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul
Team pages: Alexander Bublik · Tommy Paul
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Bublik
Tommy Paul
Estimated games
26.2Bet365 line 38.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Bublik
7-3 (W-L)
Tommy Paul
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Bublik
2–5
Tommy Paul
(7 last)
- 31 Aug3-2 31-24W
- 22 Mar1-2 16-18L
- 05 Jul0-3 9-18L
- 04 Mar1-2 11-18L
- 20 Sept0-2 8-12L
- 16 Jun2-0 13-10W
- 01 Jan1-2 15-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Bublik 1549 · Tommy Paul 1546
| Alexander Bublik | Tommy Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Tommy Paul dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 49% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Alexander Bublik 2–5 Tommy Paul (7).
- Note: Alexander Bublik makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Alexander Bublik | Tommy Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (2) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-1 | 1.6-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.4-12.9 | 15.8-14.7 |
| Aces | 15.7 | 7.3 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 80.3% | 73.6% |
| Break % | 33.6% | 49% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.2 · Bet365 line 38.5 · -12.3
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Alexander Bublik 2 – 5 Tommy Paul (7)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Bublik 2–5 Tommy Paul
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/25 US Open | 3-2 | 31-24 | W |
| 22/03/25 ATP Miami | 1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 05/07/24 Wimbledon | 0-3 | 9-18 | L |
| 04/03/21 ATP Rotterdam | 1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 20/09/20 ATP Hamburg | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/06/19 ATP Queens | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/01/19 Challenger Playford | 1-2 | 15-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Bublik
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Adrian Mannarino US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-5 | W |
| 31/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-13 | W |
| 25/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/07 | Alex Molcan ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 06/07 | Taylor Fritz Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 04/07 | Frances Tiafoe Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 28-27 | W |
| 02/07 | Kyrian Jacquet Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
Tommy Paul
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Dino Prizmic US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-16 | W |
| 30/08 | Coleman Wong US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-14 | W |
| 20/08 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 19/08 | Alexander Zverev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 18/08 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 15/08 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 08/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Valentin Royer ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/07 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 03/07 | Hubert Hurkacz Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-24 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul?
Our model gives 58% to Tommy Paul, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.