Prediction: Valentin Vacherot vs Frances Tiafoe
Team pages: Valentin Vacherot · Frances Tiafoe
Prediction summary
Winner
Valentin Vacherot
Frances Tiafoe
Estimated games
26.7Bet365 line 40.5
Recent form · 10 last
Valentin Vacherot
5-5 (W-L)
Frances Tiafoe
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valentin Vacherot 1496 · Frances Tiafoe 1607
| Valentin Vacherot | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Frances Tiafoe (rating 1496 vs 1607).
- Frances Tiafoe dominates on serve: 6.5 aces and 53.5% break avg.
- Frances Tiafoe is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Valentin Vacherot makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Valentin Vacherot | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.5 | 2-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.6-14.6 | 15.1-12.4 |
| Aces | 10.5 | 6.5 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 76.2% | 77.2% |
| Break % | 34.4% | 53.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.7 · Bet365 line 40.5 · -13.8
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valentin Vacherot
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Kamil Majchrzak US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-18 | W |
| 31/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 15/08 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Mariano Navone ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 22/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/07 | Raphael Collignon ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 15/07 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 26/05 | Thomas Faurel French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 22-19 | W |
| 24/04 | Emilio Nava ATP Madrid · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 11/04 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frances Tiafoe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Rei Sakamoto US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Martin Damm US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-23 | W |
| 23/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 20/08 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Learner Tien ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 28/07 | Terence Atmane ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valentin Vacherot vs Frances Tiafoe?
Our model gives 66% to Frances Tiafoe, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.