Tennis · US Open Women · 04/09, 17:00
Prediction: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya
Team pages: Elina Svitolina · Anna Kalinskaya
Prediction summary
Winner
Elina Svitolina
Anna Kalinskaya
Estimated games
22.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Elina Svitolina
5-5 (W-L)
Anna Kalinskaya
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Elina Svitolina
3–1
Anna Kalinskaya
(4 last)
- 11 Feb0-2 7-12L
- 02 Aug2-0 12-2W
- 16 Feb2-0 12-3W
- 12 May2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elina Svitolina 1589 · Anna Kalinskaya 1575
| Elina Svitolina | Anna Kalinskaya | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 68% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Elina Svitolina 3–1 Anna Kalinskaya (4).
- Note: Elina Svitolina makes many double faults (5.1/match).
- Note: Anna Kalinskaya makes many double faults (7/match).
Statistics
| Elina Svitolina | Anna Kalinskaya | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-9.7 | 12.9-11.9 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 4.3 |
| Double faults | 5.1 | 7 |
| 1st serve % | 70.1% | 67.8% |
| Break % | 52.8% | 42.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 52% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 48% · 1.80
H2H · Elina Svitolina 3 – 1 Anna Kalinskaya (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Elina Svitolina 3–1 Anna Kalinskaya
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/26 WTA Doha | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/08/25 WTA Montreal | 2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 16/02/25 WTA Dubai | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 12/05/24 WTA Rome | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elina Svitolina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Maya Joint US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 31/08 | Solana Sierra US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/08 | Tereza Valentova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 13/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 11/08 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 09/08 | Amanda Anisimova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Anastasia Potapova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/08 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 01/08 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Polina Kudermetova WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Anna Kalinskaya
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Xinyu Wang US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 31/08 | Anna Blinkova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/08 | Caty McNally WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/08 | McCartney Kessler WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 31/07 | Jessica Pegula WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Janice Tjen WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 28/07 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/07 | Belinda Bencic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 01/07 | Diane Parry Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya?
Our model gives 61% to Elina Svitolina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.