Tennis · US Open Women · 04/09, 17:00
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Kamilla Rakhimova
Team pages: Aryna Sabalenka · Kamilla Rakhimova
Prediction summary
Winner
Aryna Sabalenka
Kamilla Rakhimova
Estimated games
21.2Bet365 line 17.5
Recent form · 10 last
Aryna Sabalenka
7-3 (W-L)
Kamilla Rakhimova
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Aryna Sabalenka
3–0
Kamilla Rakhimova
(3 last)
- 25 May2-0 12-1W
- 01 Aug2-1 17-15W
- 02 Jun2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aryna Sabalenka 1566 · Kamilla Rakhimova 1526
| Aryna Sabalenka | Kamilla Rakhimova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aryna Sabalenka (rating 1566 vs 1526).
- Head-to-head: Aryna Sabalenka 3–0 Kamilla Rakhimova (3).
- Note: Kamilla Rakhimova makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Aryna Sabalenka | Kamilla Rakhimova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.6 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-8.4 | 12.1-10.4 |
| Aces | 5.5 | 2 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 5.2 |
| 1st serve % | 70.4% | 65.2% |
| Break % | 53.1% | 59.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2 · Bet365 line 17.5 · +3.7
Over 17.5: 74% · 1.72
Under 17.5: 26% · 2.00
H2H · Aryna Sabalenka 3 – 0 Kamilla Rakhimova (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aryna Sabalenka 3–0 Kamilla Rakhimova
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/25 French Open Women | 2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 01/08/24 WTA Washington | 2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 02/06/23 French Open Women | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aryna Sabalenka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Polina Iatcenko US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 31/08 | Maria Camila Osorio US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Xinyu Wang WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/08 | Talia Gibson WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/08 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 07/08 | Shuai Zhang WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/07 | Naomi Osaka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Jelena Ostapenko Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Kamilla Rakhimova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Oksana Selekhmeteva US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/08 | Barbora Krejcikova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/08 | Maria Timofeeva WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 22/08 | Leolia Jeanjean WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 15/08 | Maria Sakkari WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
| 13/08 | Kimberly Birrell WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/08 | Jessica Pegula WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Venus Williams WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/07 | Heather Watson WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 02/07 | Maria Sakkari Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 15-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aryna Sabalenka vs Kamilla Rakhimova?
Our model gives 74% to Aryna Sabalenka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.