Prediction: Ben Shelton vs Denis Shapovalov
Team pages: Ben Shelton · Denis Shapovalov
Prediction summary
Winner
Ben Shelton
Denis Shapovalov
Estimated games
23.9Bet365 line 34.5
Recent form · 10 last
Ben Shelton
8-2 (W-L)
Denis Shapovalov
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ben Shelton
3–0
Denis Shapovalov
(3 last)
- 15 Feb2-1 17-16W
- 04 Oct2-0 13-8W
- 05 Jul3-2 28-21W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ben Shelton 1607 · Denis Shapovalov 1568
| Ben Shelton | Denis Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Denis Shapovalov dominates on serve: 7.4 aces and 44.1% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Ben Shelton 3–0 Denis Shapovalov (3).
- Note: Denis Shapovalov makes many double faults (7.4/match).
Statistics
| Ben Shelton | Denis Shapovalov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.6 | 1.7-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.3-10.5 | 13.6-10.8 |
| Aces | 5.5 | 7.4 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 7.4 |
| 1st serve % | 79.3% | 73.9% |
| Break % | 46.9% | 44.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9 · Bet365 line 34.5 · -10.6
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Ben Shelton 3 – 0 Denis Shapovalov (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ben Shelton 3–0 Denis Shapovalov
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/26 ATP Dallas | 2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 04/10/24 ATP Shanghai | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/07/24 Wimbledon | 3-2 | 28-21 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ben Shelton
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Hubert Hurkacz US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 25-21 | W |
| 01/09 | Tallon Griekspoor US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 20-15 | W |
| 17/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/08 | Jakub Mensik ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/08 | Joao Fonseca ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/08 | Zizou Bergs ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/08 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
Denis Shapovalov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Luca Van Assche US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 30/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-15 | W |
| 16/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 13/08 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/08 | Arthur Gea ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 31/07 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/07 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/07 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 17/06 | Alex De Minaur ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ben Shelton vs Denis Shapovalov?
Our model gives 70% to Ben Shelton, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.