Tennis · US Open Women · 04/09, 17:00
Prediction: Marta Kostyuk vs Ekaterina Alexandrova
Team pages: Marta Kostyuk · Ekaterina Alexandrova
Prediction summary
Winner
Marta Kostyuk
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Estimated games
22.5Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Marta Kostyuk
6-4 (W-L)
Ekaterina Alexandrova
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Marta Kostyuk
0–2
Ekaterina Alexandrova
(2 last)
- 12 Sept1-2 18-19L
- 10 May0-2 4-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marta Kostyuk 1592 · Ekaterina Alexandrova 1542
| Marta Kostyuk | Ekaterina Alexandrova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 68% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marta Kostyuk (rating 1592 vs 1542).
- Head-to-head: Marta Kostyuk 0–2 Ekaterina Alexandrova (2).
- Note: Marta Kostyuk makes many double faults (4.4/match).
- Note: Ekaterina Alexandrova makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| Marta Kostyuk | Ekaterina Alexandrova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 78% (9) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.6-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-9.2 | 13.8-12.9 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 5.7 |
| 1st serve % | 73.5% | 67.9% |
| Break % | 66% | 44.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +2
Over 20.5: 64% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 36% · 1.90
H2H · Marta Kostyuk 0 – 2 Ekaterina Alexandrova (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marta Kostyuk 0–2 Ekaterina Alexandrova
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/22 WTA Portoroz | 1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 10/05/21 WTA Rome | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marta Kostyuk
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Sloane Stephens US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 30/08 | Storm Hunter US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 18/08 | Sloane Stephens WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Sofia Kenin WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 08/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 06/08 | Madison Keys WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/08 | Katherine Sebov WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 09/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Ekaterina Alexandrova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Kimberly Birrell US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 30/08 | McCartney Kessler US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/08 | Clara Tauson WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 16/08 | Anna Blinkova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 11/08 | Elina Svitolina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 09/08 | Aryna Sabalenka WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 06/08 | Talia Gibson WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 04/08 | Maria Camila Osorio WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/07 | Iva Jovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marta Kostyuk vs Ekaterina Alexandrova?
Our model gives 63% to Marta Kostyuk, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.