Tennis · US Open Women · 04/09, 17:00
Prediction: Emma Navarro vs Karolina Muchova
Team pages: Emma Navarro · Karolina Muchova
Prediction summary
Winner
Emma Navarro
Karolina Muchova
Estimated games
23.9Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Emma Navarro
2-8 (W-L)
Karolina Muchova
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Emma Navarro 1546 · Karolina Muchova 1604
| Emma Navarro | Karolina Muchova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Karolina Muchova (rating 1546 vs 1604).
- Karolina Muchova is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Emma Navarro makes many double faults (6.1/match).
Statistics
| Emma Navarro | Karolina Muchova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Grass | 67% (3) | 88% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.3 | 1.9-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-12.6 | 13-8.6 |
| Aces | 6.8 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 6.1 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 68.6% | 77.4% |
| Break % | 37.3% | 50.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.4
Over 21.5: 66% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 34% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Emma Navarro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Caty McNally US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 31/08 | Lois Boisson US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 18/08 | Jessica Pegula WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Anhelina Kalinina WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 05/08 | Alina Korneeva WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 27/07 | Sofia Kenin WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 04/07 | Marta Kostyuk Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 02/07 | Oksana Selekhmeteva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 30/06 | Paula Badosa Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Karolina Muchova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Katie Boulter US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 31/08 | Sinja Kraus US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 11/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 09/07 | Coco Gauff Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 07/07 | Naomi Osaka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/07 | Barbora Krejcikova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 03/07 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Shuai Zhang Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Anastasia Zakharova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/06 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Emma Navarro vs Karolina Muchova?
Our model gives 66% to Karolina Muchova, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.