Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Rinderknech
Team pages: Daniil Medvedev · Arthur Rinderknech
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniil Medvedev
Arthur Rinderknech
Estimated games
28.3Bet365 line 38.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniil Medvedev
5-5 (W-L)
Arthur Rinderknech
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniil Medvedev
1–1
Arthur Rinderknech
(2 last)
- 11 Oct1-2 12-16L
- 01 Sept3-0 19-10W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniil Medvedev 1509 · Arthur Rinderknech 1529
| Daniil Medvedev | Arthur Rinderknech | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 70% | 30% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Daniil Medvedev dominates on serve: 10.8 aces and 46.2% break avg.
- Arthur Rinderknech dominates on serve: 16.9 aces and 47.4% break avg.
- Note: Daniil Medvedev makes many double faults (6.2/match).
- Note: Arthur Rinderknech makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Daniil Medvedev | Arthur Rinderknech | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.2 | 1.8-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.3-13.5 | 18.7-16.4 |
| Aces | 10.8 | 16.9 |
| Double faults | 6.2 | 5 |
| 1st serve % | 76.2% | 79.5% |
| Break % | 46.2% | 47.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.3 · Bet365 line 38.5 · -10.2
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Daniil Medvedev 1 – 1 Arthur Rinderknech (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniil Medvedev 1–1 Arthur Rinderknech
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/25 ATP Shanghai | 1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 01/09/22 US Open | 3-0 | 19-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniil Medvedev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Sebastian Gorzny US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
| 30/08 | Hugo Gaston US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Martin Damm ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 16/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 17-21 | L |
| 01/07 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Marin Cilic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 19/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
Arthur Rinderknech
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Jaume Munar US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-13 | W |
| 30/08 | Sho Shimabukuro US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 25-17 | W |
| 16/08 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 08/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 05/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 22/07 | Sebastian Baez ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 17/07 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 15/07 | Clement Tabur ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 03/07 | Novak Djokovic Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 21-21 | L |
| 01/07 | Martin Damm Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Rinderknech?
Our model gives 60% to Daniil Medvedev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.