Tennis · US Open Women · 03/09, 17:00
Prediction: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff
Team pages: Paula Badosa · Coco Gauff
Prediction summary
Winner
Paula Badosa
Coco Gauff
Estimated games
21.7Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Paula Badosa
8-2 (W-L)
Coco Gauff
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Paula Badosa
3–2
Coco Gauff
(5 last)
- 17 Jun2-1 13-11W
- 21 Jan2-0 13-9W
- 05 Oct1-2 12-16L
- 13 May1-2 12-17L
- 29 Apr2-0 12-3W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Paula Badosa 1618 · Coco Gauff 1628
| Paula Badosa | Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 16% | 84% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Paula Badosa 3–2 Coco Gauff (5).
- Note: Paula Badosa makes many double faults (6.4/match).
Statistics
| Paula Badosa | Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (1) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.4 | 1.9-0.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-9.8 | 12.2-7.1 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 4.2 |
| Double faults | 6.4 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 67.6% | 71.4% |
| Break % | 47% | 51.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +2.2
Over 19.5: 65% · 1.83
Under 19.5: 35% · 1.83
H2H · Paula Badosa 3 – 2 Coco Gauff (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Paula Badosa 3–2 Coco Gauff
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/26 WTA Berlin | 2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 21/01/25 Australian Open Women | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/10/24 WTA Beijing | 1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 13/05/24 WTA Rome | 1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 29/04/23 WTA Madrid | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Paula Badosa
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Daria Kasatkina US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/07 | Mayar Sherif WTA Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 23/07 | Panna Udvardy WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Katarzyna Kawa WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/07 | Tamara Zidansek WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 17/07 | Panna Udvardy WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/07 | Alevtina Ibragimova WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 14/07 | Anhelina Kalinina WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/07 | Simona Waltert WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 10/07 | Yulia Putintseva WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Coco Gauff
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Zeynep Sonmez US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Jessica Pegula WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/08 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/08 | Ann Li WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 17/08 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 13/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 09/08 | Alina Korneeva WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/08 | Maria Sakkari WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff?
Our model gives 69% to Coco Gauff, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.