Prediction: Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
Team pages: Alex Michelsen · Daniel Merida Aguilar
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Michelsen
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Estimated games
22.5Bet365 line 39.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Michelsen
7-3 (W-L)
Daniel Merida Aguilar
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex Michelsen
1–1
Daniel Merida Aguilar
(2 last)
- 07 Aug1-2 12-18L
- 06 Mar2-0 12-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Michelsen 1580 · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1578
| Alex Michelsen | Daniel Merida Aguilar | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Alex Michelsen makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Alex Michelsen | Daniel Merida Aguilar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.7 | 1.8-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-10.4 | 13.8-10 |
| Aces | 5.5 | 3.9 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 75.3% | 73.2% |
| Break % | 44% | 48.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5 · Bet365 line 39.5 · -17
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Alex Michelsen 1 – 1 Daniel Merida Aguilar (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex Michelsen 1–1 Daniel Merida Aguilar
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/26 ATP Montreal | 1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 06/03/26 ATP Indian Wells | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Michelsen
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Brandon Nakashima US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 31/08 | Federico Cina US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/08 | Jesper De Jong ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 05/08 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 31/07 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 30/07 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/07 | Mackenzie McDonald ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Daniel Merida Aguilar
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Andrey Rublev US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-17 | W |
| 30/08 | Marton Fucsovics US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 18/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Zizou Bergs ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 12/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/08 | Alex Michelsen ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 06/08 | Ugo Humbert ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Liam Draxl ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar?
Our model gives 56% to Alex Michelsen, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.