Tennis · US Open Women · 04/09, 17:00
Prediction: Jasmine Paolini vs Sorana Cirstea
Team pages: Jasmine Paolini · Sorana Cirstea
Prediction summary
Winner
Jasmine Paolini
Sorana Cirstea
Estimated games
22.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jasmine Paolini
7-3 (W-L)
Sorana Cirstea
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jasmine Paolini
3–0
Sorana Cirstea
(3 last)
- 23 Feb2-0 13-8W
- 30 May2-1 15-13W
- 17 Sept2-1 16-11W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jasmine Paolini 1546 · Sorana Cirstea 1537
| Jasmine Paolini | Sorana Cirstea | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 40% | 60% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Jasmine Paolini 3–0 Sorana Cirstea (3).
Statistics
| Jasmine Paolini | Sorana Cirstea | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 67% (6) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-10.6 | 12.2-10.2 |
| Aces | 1 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 64.5% | 66.8% |
| Break % | 40.9% | 43.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 53% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 47% · 1.83
H2H · Jasmine Paolini 3 – 0 Sorana Cirstea (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jasmine Paolini 3–0 Sorana Cirstea
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/24 WTA Dubai | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/05/23 French Open Women | 2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 17/09/21 WTA Portoroz | 2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jasmine Paolini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Lucrezia Stefanini US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/08 | Veronika Erjavec US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 08/07 | Marta Kostyuk Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/07 | Alexandra Eala Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 04/07 | Maria Sakkari Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/07 | Viktorija Golubic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/06 | Robin Montgomery Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 23/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Solana Sierra French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 25/05 | Dayana Yastremska French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Sorana Cirstea
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Diane Parry US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 31/08 | Julia Grabher US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/08 | Jessica Pegula WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 15/08 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Maya Joint WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 04/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 02/07 | Kimberly Birrell Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Sara Bejlek Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/06 | Emma Raducanu WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Maddison Inglis WTA Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jasmine Paolini vs Sorana Cirstea?
Our model gives 55% to Sorana Cirstea, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.