Tennis · US Open Women · 04/09, 17:00
Prediction: Jessica Pegula vs Leylah Annie Fernandez
Team pages: Jessica Pegula · Leylah Annie Fernandez
Prediction summary
Winner
Jessica Pegula
Leylah Annie Fernandez
Estimated games
20.1Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jessica Pegula
8-2 (W-L)
Leylah Annie Fernandez
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jessica Pegula
4–1
Leylah Annie Fernandez
(5 last)
- 22 Mar2-0 12-4W
- 24 Jul1-2 14-14L
- 17 Aug2-1 20-18W
- 24 Mar2-0 13-9W
- 06 Jun2-1 16-11W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jessica Pegula 1624 · Leylah Annie Fernandez 1518
| Jessica Pegula | Leylah Annie Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jessica Pegula (rating 1624 vs 1518).
- Jessica Pegula is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Jessica Pegula 4–1 Leylah Annie Fernandez (5).
Statistics
| Jessica Pegula | Leylah Annie Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.1-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-9.3 | 10-8.9 |
| Aces | 3.1 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 69.8% | 68.8% |
| Break % | 53.4% | 50.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.1 · Bet365 line 20.5
Over 20.5: 47% · 1.90
Under 20.5: 53% · 1.80
H2H · Jessica Pegula 4 – 1 Leylah Annie Fernandez (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jessica Pegula 4–1 Leylah Annie Fernandez
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 WTA Miami | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/07/25 WTA Washington | 1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 17/08/24 WTA Cincinnati | 2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 24/03/24 WTA Miami | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/06/20 Matchplay 120 Women | 2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jessica Pegula
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Sofia Kenin US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/08 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 20/08 | Amanda Anisimova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 19/08 | Sorana Cirstea WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 18/08 | Emma Navarro WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/08 | Simona Waltert WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Leylah Annie Fernandez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/08 | Shuai Zhang US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Xiyu Wang WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 10/08 | Naomi Osaka WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/08 | Renata Zarazua WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/07 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/07 | Magda Linette WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Janice Tjen Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Xinyu Wang WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jessica Pegula vs Leylah Annie Fernandez?
Our model gives 74% to Jessica Pegula, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.