Tennis · M15 Bologna · 03/09, 10:00
Prediction: Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini vs Luca Castagnola
Team pages: Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini · Luca Castagnola
Prediction summary
Winner
Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
Luca Castagnola
Estimated games
20.8
Recent form · 10 last
Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
6-4 (W-L)
Luca Castagnola
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini 1483 · Luca Castagnola 1515
| Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini | Luca Castagnola | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini makes many double faults (11.1/match).
- Note: Luca Castagnola makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini | Luca Castagnola | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (1) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.5-10.7 | 9.1-10.5 |
| Aces | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 11.1 | 4.6 |
| 1st serve % | 65.5% | 63.9% |
| Break % | 51.8% | 35.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Lorenzo Beraldo M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/08 | Jonas Gundacker M15 Vienna |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/08 | Laurent Lokoli M25 Lesa |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Gabriele Mellerio M25 Lesa |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/08 | Marcello Serafini M25 Fano |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Matthias Ujvary M15 Wels |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/07 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano M15 Segrate |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 21/07 | Filippo Catalano M15 Segrate |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/07 | Petros Tsitsipas M15 Lodz |
1-2 | 13-19 | L |
| 07/07 | Szymon Podczaszy M15 Lodz |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Luca Castagnola
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Matic Hribar M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/08 | Sebastian Sorger M25 Slovenj Gradec |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Stefan Popovic M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 18/08 | Maximilian Figl M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 12/08 | Bruno Fernandez M15 Trier |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Georgi Georgiev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Yoan Naydenov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/07 | Vladyslav Orlov M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Luca Parenti M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 19/07 | Dimitris Sakellaridis M15 Nova Gorica |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini vs Luca Castagnola?
Our model gives 64% to Luca Castagnola, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.