Prediction: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien
Team pages: Learner Tien
Prediction summary
Winner
Gael Monfils
Learner Tien
Estimated games
23.7Bet365 line 35.5
Recent form · 10 last
Gael Monfils
4-6 (W-L)
Learner Tien
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Gael Monfils
0–1
Learner Tien
(1 last)
- 06 Aug1-2 12-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gael Monfils 1487 · Learner Tien 1554
| Gael Monfils | Learner Tien | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Learner Tien (rating 1487 vs 1554).
- Gael Monfils dominates on serve: 7.9 aces and 40.8% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Gael Monfils 0–1 Learner Tien (1).
- Note: Gael Monfils makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Gael Monfils | Learner Tien | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.5 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-12.8 | 12.7-11.2 |
| Aces | 7.9 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 74.3% | 69.8% |
| Break % | 40.8% | 38.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7 · Bet365 line 35.5 · -11.8
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Gael Monfils 0 – 1 Learner Tien (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gael Monfils 0–1 Learner Tien
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/26 ATP Montreal | 1-2 | 12-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gael Monfils
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 20-9 | W |
| 14/08 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 06/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 12-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 25/05 | Hugo Gaston French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 17-23 | L |
| 23/04 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/04 | Alexander Bublik ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 05/04 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 06/03 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Indian Wells · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 05/03 | Alexis Galarneau ATP Indian Wells · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Learner Tien
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Nuno Borges US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 16/08 | Sebastian Baez ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/08 | Tommy Paul ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/08 | Gael Monfils ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 28/07 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/07 | Marton Fucsovics Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien?
Our model gives 70% to Learner Tien, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.