Tennis · US Open Women · 03/09, 17:00
Prediction: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Elena Rybakina
Team pages: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro · Elena Rybakina
Prediction summary
Winner
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
Elena Rybakina
Estimated games
22.2Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
7-3 (W-L)
Elena Rybakina
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
0–1
Elena Rybakina
(1 last)
- 27 Dec0-2 5-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 1501 · Elena Rybakina 1625
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 67% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elena Rybakina (rating 1501 vs 1625).
- Elena Rybakina dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 45% break avg.
- Elena Rybakina is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 0–1 Elena Rybakina (1).
- Note: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro makes many double faults (5.9/match).
- Note: Elena Rybakina makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1.8-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-12 | 13.4-10.4 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 7.3 |
| Double faults | 5.9 | 4.6 |
| 1st serve % | 60.3% | 74.6% |
| Break % | 48% | 45% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.7
Over 20.5: 62% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 38% · 1.83
H2H · Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 0 – 1 Elena Rybakina (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 0–1 Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/24 United Cup Women | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Darja Vidmanova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Xiyu Wang WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 24/08 | Ella Seidel WTA Philadelphia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/08 | Katerina Siniakova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 9-18 | L |
| 14/08 | Anna Bondar WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/08 | Elina Svitolina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 02/08 | Ariana Arseneault WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/07 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Prague · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 13/07 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Athens · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Jessica Pegula Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Thea Frodin US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 17/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Taylor Townsend WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 12/08 | Naomi Osaka WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 09/08 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 07/08 | Ann Li WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Elena Rybakina?
Our model gives 75% to Elena Rybakina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.