Tennis · US Open Women · 03/09, 17:00
Prediction: Maria Timofeeva vs Elise Mertens
Team pages: Maria Timofeeva · Elise Mertens
Prediction summary
Winner
Maria Timofeeva
Elise Mertens
Estimated games
21.8Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Maria Timofeeva
6-4 (W-L)
Elise Mertens
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Maria Timofeeva
0–1
Elise Mertens
(1 last)
- 02 Jul1-2 9-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maria Timofeeva 1554 · Elise Mertens 1545
| Maria Timofeeva | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Maria Timofeeva 0–1 Elise Mertens (1).
- Note: Elise Mertens makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Maria Timofeeva | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 71% (7) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-10.4 | 11.4-10.8 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 5 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 5.2 |
| 1st serve % | 61.5% | 71.3% |
| Break % | 45.5% | 37.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8 · Bet365 line 21.5
Over 21.5: 52% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 48% · 1.83
H2H · Maria Timofeeva 0 – 1 Elise Mertens (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Maria Timofeeva 0–1 Elise Mertens
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07/26 Wimbledon Women | 1-2 | 9-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maria Timofeeva
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Tamara Zidansek US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/08 | Shuai Zhang WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/08 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 22/08 | Lanlana Tararudee WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 16-18 | W |
| 23/07 | Sara Bejlek WTA Prague · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/07 | Ann Li WTA Athens · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Elise Mertens Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 30/06 | Beatriz Haddad Maia Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/06 | Heather Watson Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
Elise Mertens
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Kaitlin Quevedo US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/08 | Diane Parry WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 13-12 | L |
| 29/08 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 28/08 | Yulia Starodubtsewa WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/08 | Panna Udvardy WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Diane Parry WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 08/08 | Naomi Osaka WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Anna Bondar WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 08/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 06/07 | Marie Bouzkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maria Timofeeva vs Elise Mertens?
Our model gives 62% to Elise Mertens, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.