Tennis · US Open Women · 03/09, 17:00
Prediction: Maria Sakkari vs Yulia Starodubtsewa
Team pages: Maria Sakkari · Yulia Starodubtsewa
Prediction summary
Winner
Maria Sakkari
Yulia Starodubtsewa
Estimated games
21.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Maria Sakkari
7-3 (W-L)
Yulia Starodubtsewa
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maria Sakkari 1553 · Yulia Starodubtsewa 1485
| Maria Sakkari | Yulia Starodubtsewa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maria Sakkari (rating 1553 vs 1485).
- Maria Sakkari is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Maria Sakkari | Yulia Starodubtsewa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-9.1 | 11.1-12.6 |
| Aces | 3.5 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 70.8% | 59.6% |
| Break % | 53.4% | 38.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -0.7
Over 22.5: 45% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 55% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maria Sakkari
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Robin Montgomery US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 17/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 8-16 | L |
| 15/08 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 08/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/07 | Barbora Krejcikova WTA Athens · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/07 | Alina Korneeva WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 17/07 | Alycia Parks WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/07 | Harriet Dart WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/07 | Polina Kudermetova WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Yulia Starodubtsewa
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Ella Seidel US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/08 | Elise Mertens WTA Monterrey · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Janice Tjen WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Lilli Tagger WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Daria Snigur WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Maya Joint WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 29/07 | Sloane Stephens WTA Memphis · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Anna Blinkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 23/06 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 17/06 | Emma Navarro WTA Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maria Sakkari vs Yulia Starodubtsewa?
Our model gives 59% to Maria Sakkari, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.