Tennis · US Open Women · 03/09, 17:00
Prediction: Mirra Andreeva vs Eva Lys
Team pages: Mirra Andreeva · Eva Lys
Prediction summary
Winner
Mirra Andreeva
Eva Lys
Estimated games
20.2Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mirra Andreeva
8-2 (W-L)
Eva Lys
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mirra Andreeva 1542 · Eva Lys 1484
| Mirra Andreeva | Eva Lys | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mirra Andreeva (rating 1542 vs 1484).
Statistics
| Mirra Andreeva | Eva Lys | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (6) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.8 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-8.5 | 9.9-10.8 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 71.3% | 58.5% |
| Break % | 53.6% | 56% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.2 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +0.7
Over 19.5: 55% · 1.83
Under 19.5: 45% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mirra Andreeva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Janice Tjen US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 8-16 | L |
| 18/08 | Janice Tjen WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 16/08 | Oleksandra Oliynykova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 07/08 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Karolina Pliskova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/07 | Barbora Krejcikova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 29/06 | Magda Linette Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/06 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/06 | Maja Chwalinska French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Eva Lys
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Gabriela Knutson US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/08 | Sofia Kenin WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Anna Blinkova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 12/08 | Katarzyna Kawa WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 30/06 | Diana Shnaider Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Emma Navarro WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Elina Svitolina WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Magdalena Frech WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/05 | Sorana Cirstea French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Petra Marcinko French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mirra Andreeva vs Eva Lys?
Our model gives 74% to Mirra Andreeva, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.