Prediction: Dane Sweeny vs Lorenzo Musetti
Team pages: Dane Sweeny · Lorenzo Musetti
Prediction summary
Winner
Dane Sweeny
Lorenzo Musetti
Estimated games
23.3Bet365 line 29.5
Recent form · 10 last
Dane Sweeny
6-4 (W-L)
Lorenzo Musetti
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dane Sweeny 1440 · Lorenzo Musetti 1551
| Dane Sweeny | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 7% | 93% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Musetti (rating 1440 vs 1551).
- Lorenzo Musetti is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Dane Sweeny makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Dane Sweeny | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 17% (6) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.7 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-14.8 | 11.9-10 |
| Aces | 2.9 | 3.6 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 65.7% | 69.9% |
| Break % | 38.6% | 46.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3 · Bet365 line 29.5 · -6.2
Over 29.5: 14% · 1.80
Under 29.5: 86% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dane Sweeny
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 11/08 | Christopher O'Connell ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 01/08 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 29/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Duncan Chan Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/07 | Andres Martin Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Grigor Dimitrov Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 25/06 | Tomas Barrios Vera Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 23-24 | W |
| 22/06 | Franco Roncadelli Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/06 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
Lorenzo Musetti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Arthur Fery US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 22/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 20/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 18/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/08 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 12/05 | Casper Ruud ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dane Sweeny vs Lorenzo Musetti?
Our model gives 80% to Lorenzo Musetti, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.