Tennis · US Open Women · 03/09, 17:00
Prediction: Madison Keys vs Anna Bondar
Team pages: Madison Keys · Anna Bondar
Prediction summary
Winner
Madison Keys
Anna Bondar
Estimated games
22.1Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Madison Keys
6-4 (W-L)
Anna Bondar
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Madison Keys
1–0
Anna Bondar
(1 last)
- 02 Apr2-0 13-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Madison Keys 1550 · Anna Bondar 1514
| Madison Keys | Anna Bondar | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 85% | 15% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Madison Keys 1–0 Anna Bondar (1).
- Note: Madison Keys makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Madison Keys | Anna Bondar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-10.5 | 12-10.8 |
| Aces | 5.7 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 71.5% | 66.8% |
| Break % | 37.9% | 46.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +2.6
Over 19.5: 67% · 1.90
Under 19.5: 33% · 1.80
H2H · Madison Keys 1 – 0 Anna Bondar (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Madison Keys 1–0 Anna Bondar
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/26 WTA Charleston | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Madison Keys
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Alina Korneeva US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 20/08 | Xiyu Wang WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/08 | Katerina Siniakova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/08 | Daria Snigur WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 06/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Antonia Ruzic WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/07 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 06/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/07 | Amanda Anisimova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Anna Bondar
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Lucie Havlickova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Cristina Bucsa WTA Monterrey · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/08 | En Shuo Liang WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 23/08 | Elsa Jacquemot WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/08 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Elise Mertens WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 03/08 | Anhelina Kalinina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/07 | Tamara Korpatsch WTA Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Elina Avanesyan WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 24/07 | Alina Charaeva WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Madison Keys vs Anna Bondar?
Our model gives 72% to Madison Keys, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.