Tennis · M15 Bologna · 02/09, 10:00
Prediction: Matic Hribar vs Luca Castagnola
Team pages: Matic Hribar · Luca Castagnola
Prediction summary
Winner
Matic Hribar
Luca Castagnola
Estimated games
20.2
Recent form · 10 last
Matic Hribar
5-5 (W-L)
Luca Castagnola
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Matic Hribar
0–1
Luca Castagnola
(1 last)
- 20 May0-2 4-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matic Hribar 1499 · Luca Castagnola 1508
| Matic Hribar | Luca Castagnola | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 16% | 84% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Matic Hribar 0–1 Luca Castagnola (1).
- Note: Matic Hribar makes many double faults (4.2/match).
- Note: Luca Castagnola makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Matic Hribar | Luca Castagnola | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (2) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.4-9.7 | 9.2-10.7 |
| Aces | 1 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 4.7 |
| 1st serve % | 68.7% | 63.3% |
| Break % | 36.5% | 33.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.2
H2H · Matic Hribar 0 – 1 Luca Castagnola (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matic Hribar 0–1 Luca Castagnola
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05/26 M15 Litija | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matic Hribar
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Andrea Tognolini M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 31/08 | Matteo Trombini M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 26/08 | Filip Jeff Planinsek M25 Maribor |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Frederic Schlossmann M25 Slovenj Gradec |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 16/07 | Lorenzo Bocchi M15 Nova Gorica |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Adam Jilly M15 Nova Gorica |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 12/07 | Cyrus Mahjoob UTR Pro Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/07 | Andreas Loizas UTR Pro Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/07 | Vid Mohar UTR Pro Winston-Salem · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 07/07 | Gabriel Alejandro Hidalgo UTR Pro Winston-Salem · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Luca Castagnola
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | Sebastian Sorger M25 Slovenj Gradec |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Stefan Popovic M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 18/08 | Maximilian Figl M25 Slovenj Gradec |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 12/08 | Bruno Fernandez M15 Trier |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Georgi Georgiev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Yoan Naydenov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/07 | Vladyslav Orlov M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Luca Parenti M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 19/07 | Dimitris Sakellaridis M15 Nova Gorica |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Gabriele Bosio M15 Nova Gorica |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matic Hribar vs Luca Castagnola?
Our model gives 69% to Luca Castagnola, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.