Prediction: Rafael Jodar vs Bu Yunchaokete
Team pages: Rafael Jodar · Bu Yunchaokete
Prediction summary
Winner
Rafael Jodar
Bu Yunchaokete
Estimated games
23.3Bet365 line 35.5
Recent form · 10 last
Rafael Jodar
6-4 (W-L)
Bu Yunchaokete
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rafael Jodar 1577 · Bu Yunchaokete 1530
| Rafael Jodar | Bu Yunchaokete | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 85% | 15% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rafael Jodar (rating 1577 vs 1530).
- Bu Yunchaokete dominates on serve: 6.2 aces and 58.2% break avg.
Statistics
| Rafael Jodar | Bu Yunchaokete | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-10.9 | 12.9-12.6 |
| Aces | 3.9 | 6.2 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 72.1% | 77.3% |
| Break % | 42.5% | 58.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3 · Bet365 line 35.5 · -12.2
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rafael Jodar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/08 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 13/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 11/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Corentin Moutet ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 03/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Bu Yunchaokete
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Federico Cina US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 26/08 | Borna Gojo US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 25/08 | Rio Noguchi US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 18/08 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Quentin Halys ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 12/08 | Francesco Maestrelli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 19/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 18/07 | Colton Smith Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 17/07 | Yibing Wu Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/07 | Evan Zhu Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rafael Jodar vs Bu Yunchaokete?
Our model gives 72% to Rafael Jodar, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.