Tennis · US Open Women · 04/09, 17:00
Prediction: Naomi Osaka vs Katerina Siniakova
Team pages: Naomi Osaka · Katerina Siniakova
Prediction summary
Winner
Naomi Osaka
Katerina Siniakova
Estimated games
20.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Naomi Osaka
7-3 (W-L)
Katerina Siniakova
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Naomi Osaka
2–1
Katerina Siniakova
(3 last)
- 02 Jul2-0 12-5W
- 01 Jun0-2 6-12L
- 12 Feb2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Naomi Osaka 1577 · Katerina Siniakova 1525
| Naomi Osaka | Katerina Siniakova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 76% | 24% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Naomi Osaka (rating 1577 vs 1525).
- Naomi Osaka dominates on serve: 7.4 aces and 49.3% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Naomi Osaka 2–1 Katerina Siniakova (3).
- Note: Katerina Siniakova makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Naomi Osaka | Katerina Siniakova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 71% (7) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1.2-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-9.6 | 10.2-8.9 |
| Aces | 7.4 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 3 | 5.3 |
| 1st serve % | 75% | 71.1% |
| Break % | 49.3% | 46.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.2 · Bet365 line 21.5 · -1.3
Over 21.5: 41% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 59% · 1.83
H2H · Naomi Osaka 2 – 1 Katerina Siniakova (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Naomi Osaka 2–1 Katerina Siniakova
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07/25 Wimbledon Women | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/06/19 French Open Women | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/02/18 WTA Doha | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Naomi Osaka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Anastasia Zakharova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 12/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 10/08 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/08 | Elise Mertens WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/08 | Panna Udvardy WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/08 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 07/07 | Karolina Muchova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/07 | Aryna Sabalenka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/07 | Daria Kasatkina Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Katerina Siniakova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/08 | Madison Keys WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Nikola Bartunkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Qinwen Zheng Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/06 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Jessica Pegula WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Rebeka Masarova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Lin Zhu WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Yue Yuan WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Naomi Osaka vs Katerina Siniakova?
Our model gives 68% to Naomi Osaka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.