Prediction: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe
Team pages: Rei Sakamoto · Frances Tiafoe
Prediction summary
Winner
Rei Sakamoto
Frances Tiafoe
Estimated games
26.3Bet365 line 40.5
Recent form · 10 last
Rei Sakamoto
6-4 (W-L)
Frances Tiafoe
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rei Sakamoto 1569 · Frances Tiafoe 1591
| Rei Sakamoto | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 32% | 68% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Rei Sakamoto dominates on serve: 13.1 aces and 40.7% break avg.
- Frances Tiafoe dominates on serve: 7 aces and 50.7% break avg.
Statistics
| Rei Sakamoto | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-1 | 1.9-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.2-13.2 | 15.8-13.8 |
| Aces | 13.1 | 7 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 78% | 77.7% |
| Break % | 40.7% | 50.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.3 · Bet365 line 40.5 · -14.2
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rei Sakamoto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Aleksandar Vukic US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 27-25 | W |
| 28/08 | Kei Nishikori US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Alexandre Muller US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Jay Clarke US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 20/08 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/08 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/08 | Ugo Blanchet Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 07/08 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Lexington · Hard |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
Frances Tiafoe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Martin Damm US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 25-23 | W |
| 23/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 20/08 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Learner Tien ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 28/07 | Terence Atmane ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 04/07 | Alexander Bublik Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 27-28 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe?
Our model gives 61% to Frances Tiafoe, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.