Prediction: Felix Auger Aliassime vs Karen Khachanov
Team pages: Felix Auger Aliassime · Karen Khachanov
Prediction summary
Winner
Felix Auger Aliassime
Karen Khachanov
Estimated games
28.8Bet365 line 38.5
Recent form · 10 last
Felix Auger Aliassime
7-3 (W-L)
Karen Khachanov
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Felix Auger Aliassime
2–2
Karen Khachanov
(4 last)
- 19 Jun1-2 12-13L
- 10 Jun2-0 13-10W
- 18 Aug2-1 18-14W
- 08 Aug1-2 15-19L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Felix Auger Aliassime 1562 · Karen Khachanov 1498
| Felix Auger Aliassime | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 68% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Felix Auger Aliassime (rating 1562 vs 1498).
- Felix Auger Aliassime dominates on serve: 15.4 aces and 59.6% break avg.
- Felix Auger Aliassime is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Felix Auger Aliassime makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Felix Auger Aliassime | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 67% (6) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.2-1 | 1.6-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 18.8-14.5 | 15.5-13.9 |
| Aces | 15.4 | 9.8 |
| Double faults | 5 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 81.1% | 75.1% |
| Break % | 59.6% | 36.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.8 · Bet365 line 38.5 · -9.7
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Felix Auger Aliassime 2 – 2 Karen Khachanov (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Felix Auger Aliassime 2–2 Karen Khachanov
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/25 ATP Halle | 1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 10/06/22 ATP Hertogenbosch | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/08/21 ATP Cincinnati | 2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 08/08/19 ATP Montreal | 1-2 | 15-19 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Felix Auger Aliassime
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Rinky Hijikata US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-19 | W |
| 20/08 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/08 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 16/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/07 | Novak Djokovic Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 28-29 | L |
| 05/07 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 31-24 | W |
| 03/07 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Dino Prizmic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 29/06 | Alexander Shevchenko Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 19/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Karen Khachanov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Roman Andres Burruchaga US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-4 | W |
| 15/08 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 06/08 | Terence Atmane ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Bernard Tomic ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/07 | Flavio Cobolli Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 23-25 | L |
| 02/07 | Yannick Hanfmann Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 30/06 | Billy Harris Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-16 | W |
| 16/06 | Ethan Quinn ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
| 07/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 05/06 | Alexander Bublik Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Felix Auger Aliassime vs Karen Khachanov?
Our model gives 64% to Felix Auger Aliassime, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.