Prediction: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo
Team pages: Alexei Popyrin · Alejandro Tabilo
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexei Popyrin
Alejandro Tabilo
Estimated games
24.2Bet365 line 41.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexei Popyrin
3-7 (W-L)
Alejandro Tabilo
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexei Popyrin
1–0
Alejandro Tabilo
(1 last)
- 28 May3-0 19-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexei Popyrin 1510 · Alejandro Tabilo 1523
| Alexei Popyrin | Alejandro Tabilo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Alexei Popyrin 1–0 Alejandro Tabilo (1).
Statistics
| Alexei Popyrin | Alejandro Tabilo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.5 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-13 | 13.3-13.3 |
| Aces | 7.9 | 7.1 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 72% | 76% |
| Break % | 30% | 36% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.2 · Bet365 line 41.5 · -17.3
Estimate calibrated to best-of-3; this match is best-of-5 — the total is indicative, not reliable, so we do not show Over/Under here.
H2H · Alexei Popyrin 1 – 0 Alejandro Tabilo (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexei Popyrin 1–0 Alejandro Tabilo
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/25 French Open | 3-0 | 19-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexei Popyrin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Grigor Dimitrov US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-15 | W |
| 19/08 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Raphael Collignon ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 29/07 | Andy Andrade Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Jiri Lehecka Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Jan Choinski ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Raphael Collignon ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Alejandro Tabilo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Yannick Hanfmann US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-15 | W |
| 18/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/08 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 01/08 | Ben Shelton ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 30/07 | Terence Atmane ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/07 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 22/07 | Tiago Torres ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Andrey Rublev ATP Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo?
Our model gives 51% to Alejandro Tabilo, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.