Tennis · US Open Women · 04/09, 17:00
Prediction: Iga Swiatek vs Nadia Podoroska
Team pages: Iga Swiatek · Nadia Podoroska
Prediction summary
Winner
Iga Swiatek
Nadia Podoroska
Estimated games
21.8Bet365 line 15.5
Recent form · 10 last
Iga Swiatek
7-3 (W-L)
Nadia Podoroska
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Iga Swiatek
1–0
Nadia Podoroska
(1 last)
- 08 Oct2-0 12-3W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Iga Swiatek 1639 · Nadia Podoroska 1522
| Iga Swiatek | Nadia Podoroska | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 34% |
| Market | 96% | 4% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Iga Swiatek (rating 1639 vs 1522).
- Iga Swiatek is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Iga Swiatek 1–0 Nadia Podoroska (1).
- Note: Nadia Podoroska makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Iga Swiatek | Nadia Podoroska | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.5 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-7.1 | 12.1-10.7 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 5.4 |
| 1st serve % | 70.7% | 65.7% |
| Break % | 56.4% | 41.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8 · Bet365 line 15.5 · +6.3
Over 15.5: 86% · 1.72
Under 15.5: 14% · 2.00
H2H · Iga Swiatek 1 – 0 Nadia Podoroska (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Iga Swiatek 1–0 Nadia Podoroska
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/20 French Open Women | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Iga Swiatek
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Xiyu Wang US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Jessica Pegula WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 19/08 | Diane Parry WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/08 | Maria Sakkari WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 16/08 | Emiliana Arango WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/08 | Elina Svitolina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 11/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Nadia Podoroska
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Simona Waltert US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 13/08 | Emiliana Arango WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 13/08 | Ella Seidel WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/07 | Andrea Lazaro Garcia W100 Gran Canaria |
1-2 | 13-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Sara Cakarevic W100 Gran Canaria |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/07 | Julia Stusek WTA Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 13/07 | Petra Marcinko WTA Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 30/06 | Marta Kostyuk Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Ruien Zhang W35 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/06 | Carolina Troiano W35 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Iga Swiatek vs Nadia Podoroska?
Our model gives 82% to Iga Swiatek, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.