Tennis · US Open Women · 03/09, 17:00
Prediction: Elina Svitolina vs Maya Joint
Team pages: Elina Svitolina · Maya Joint
Prediction summary
Winner
Elina Svitolina
Maya Joint
Estimated games
23Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Elina Svitolina
4-6 (W-L)
Maya Joint
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elina Svitolina 1585 · Maya Joint 1524
| Elina Svitolina | Maya Joint | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elina Svitolina (rating 1585 vs 1524).
- Note: Elina Svitolina makes many double faults (5.3/match).
- Note: Maya Joint makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Elina Svitolina | Maya Joint | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 78% (9) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.5-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-9.7 | 13-12 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 5.3 | 5 |
| 1st serve % | 68.3% | 60.3% |
| Break % | 52.5% | 51.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +2.5
Over 20.5: 67% · 1.90
Under 20.5: 33% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elina Svitolina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Solana Sierra US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/08 | Tereza Valentova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 13/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 11/08 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 09/08 | Amanda Anisimova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Anastasia Potapova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/08 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 01/08 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Polina Kudermetova WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/06 | Daria Snigur Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Maya Joint
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Ludmilla Samsonova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Panna Udvardy WTA Monterrey · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Yulia Putintseva WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-1 | 12-10 | W |
| 23/08 | Jessica Hinojosa Gomez WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/08 | Tamara Korpatsch WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 06/08 | Sorana Cirstea WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/08 | Yulia Starodubtsewa WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 01/08 | Ana Grubor WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 30/07 | Kristina Liutova WTA Memphis · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elina Svitolina vs Maya Joint?
Our model gives 71% to Elina Svitolina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.