Tennis · US Open Women · 01/09, 19:00
Prediction: Anastasia Potapova vs Darja Semenistaja
Team pages: Anastasia Potapova · Darja Semenistaja
Prediction summary
Winner
Anastasia Potapova
Darja Semenistaja
Estimated games
22.1Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Anastasia Potapova
2-8 (W-L)
Darja Semenistaja
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Anastasia Potapova 1486 · Darja Semenistaja 1435
| Anastasia Potapova | Darja Semenistaja | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Anastasia Potapova (rating 1486 vs 1435).
- Anastasia Potapova is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Note: Anastasia Potapova makes many double faults (5.5/match).
Statistics
| Anastasia Potapova | Darja Semenistaja | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 0.9-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-11.9 | 9.8-12.9 |
| Aces | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 5.5 | 1.1 |
| 1st serve % | 63.5% | 54.3% |
| Break % | 48% | 36.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.6
Over 20.5: 61% · 1.90
Under 20.5: 39% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Anastasia Potapova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Sloane Stephens WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Elina Svitolina WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/07 | Diana Shnaider WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Venus Williams WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/06 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Suzan Lamens WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 01/06 | Anna Kalinskaya French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 30/05 | Coco Gauff French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 28/05 | Katie Boulter French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Darja Semenistaja
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Storm Hunter US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/08 | Alexandra Shubladze US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/08 | Hayu Kinoshita US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/08 | Denislava Glushkova W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 28/07 | Mia Ristic WTA Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Sinja Kraus WTA Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 14/07 | Julia Riera WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 8-16 | L |
| 06/07 | Leyre Romero Gormaz WTA Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 29/06 | Antonia Ruzic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 25/06 | Anastasia Gasanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Anastasia Potapova vs Darja Semenistaja?
Our model gives 69% to Anastasia Potapova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.